Author: China Agriculture grant Shun Jingfa
By 2018, China is still the world's largest marine producer, with output of 64.58 million tons. This output is almost the same as 64.45 million tons in 2017.
(Author: China Agriculture grant Shun King fat) 2017--2018 growth rate of China's marine lowest level in nearly a decade. In view of the limited resources of aquaculture land, the introduction of the national environmental protection policy on aquaculture and the decline in wild fishing, it is expected that China's seafood production will be flat or slightly reduced this year.
Since 2016, the expansion of aquaculture area has virtually stopped. Aquaculture production has grown excessively from the expansion of cultured areas to scientific units, resulting in a modest increase overall in 2019.
In recent years, China's seafood imports have been at historically high levels. With the increase in export demand for value-added seafood in 2018, the demand for processed and re-exported raw materials has greatly promoted China's seafood imports. According to customs statistics, in 2018 China's total import and export of aquatic products was 95.442 million tons, with a total value of 37.188 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.33% and 14.44% year-on-year, respectively. The total value of imports and exports reached a record high. The trade surplus for the year was US $ 7.465 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $ 2.339 billion. However, export production of value-added seafood is expected to be limited by international trade, labor constraints and increased input costs.
In addition, domestic seafood consumption demand is still strong, and people's increasing awareness of seafood makes China's middle class prefer wild-caught products. And China's reduction of import tariffs on some seafood will also encourage more domestic product imports and consumption. The most promising imported products include salmon, cod, longevity fish, halibut, catfish, shrimp, and prawns, as well as higher-priced fresh imported seafood such as lobster, king crab, and treasure crab.
(Author: China Agriculture grant Shun King rounds)
Seafood production growth is flat
It is estimated that China's seafood output was 64.58 million tons in 2018, which was basically the same as 64.45 million tons in 2017. Among them, the output of wild seafood dropped by 500,000 tons, the production of artificially cultivated seafood increased by 600,000 tons, and wild fishing accounted for about a quarter of the total output.
In 2019, wild-caught seafood production is expected to remain stagnant, and the growth of farmed seafood will be feared by limited water resources and environmental challenges. According to the third China Agricultural Census, the National Bureau of Statistics adjusted the seafood production data of previous years.
China's Seafood Production and Growth Rate, 2014-2019
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
Due to limited catches in China and other countries, the production of wild seafood is increasingly challenged. In the first 11 months of 2018, total production fell by 5.6%. According to the Marine Fisheries Development Plan (2016-2020), China will compress ocean fishing vessels and enforce "zero growth".
In recent years, China has strengthened supervision of fisheries. More than 4,000 fishing vessels have been suspended and more than 30,000 illegal fishing vessels have been destroyed. In 2018, summer fishing closures in domestic waters were extended from two to three months (depending on the region) to three to four months (from May 1 to mid-August or early September, depending on the region). At the same time, fishing in rivers and lakes is prohibited, such as the four months of spring fishing off the Yangtze River and the Pearl River, which has promoted the ecological restoration of domestic rivers and lakes.
China is the world's largest aquaculture country, accounting for two-thirds of the world's aquaculture production in 2017. In 2017, China's aquaculture production reached 49.06 million tons. By 2018, the total production of aquaculture products is estimated at 49.910 million tons, accounting for 77.29% of China's seafood production.
The decline in the growth rate of cultured seafood reflects the fact that the water resources used for aquaculture have not expanded due to the government's enhanced enforcement of environmental regulations. As domestic demand for seafood is expected to continue to increase, and catches are expected to decline, China's seafood production is expected to maintain a modest increase after 2018. Growth is most likely to be achieved through technological innovation rather than expansion of water resources. Use to achieve.
Data source: China Fishery Statistical Yearbook
Seafood imports grow rapidly
In 2018, China's imports of aquatic products were 5,222,200 tons, and the import value was US $ 14,861 million, an increase of 6.64% and 30.99% year-on-year respectively. The import volume of imported raw materials for processing was 1,138,300 tons, and the import value was 2,869 million US dollars, an increase of 8.55% and 15.40% year-on-year, respectively. The import volume of other products (mainly for domestic consumption) imported by general trade was 1,602,400 tons, and the import value was 7,670 million US dollars, an increase of 61.21% and 80.21% year-on-year respectively.
Russia remains China's largest seafood supplier. Qingdao and Dalian remain the two largest seafood arrival ports. Consumers favor imported seafood types including cod and halibut, as well as live species such as lobster and crab.
China ’s imports from Russia rose, with imports increasing by 8.24% and 42.85%, of which frozen cod, frozen salmon, crabs and other imports increased by a large amount; imports from ASEAN increased by 30.01% and 54.09%, respectively Vietnam ’s imports have increased significantly; imports from Australia and Ecuador have increased by 115.11% and 177.97% year-on-year, with the surge in species being lobster and prawn.
Experts believe that most of the newly imported goods are used for domestic consumption, not for processing and re-export. Since 2017, China has implemented MFN tariff reductions on certain seafood to encourage the import of these species for domestic consumption. South American white shrimp and Argentine red shrimp are very popular in the Chinese market. In 2018, fish fillet imports increased by 76% year-on-year to 141,000 tons. Frozen fish fillets from Vietnam account for 75%, most of which are pisa fillets.
Comparison of Chinese shrimp import trends from 2016 to 2018
Imported seafood is becoming more affordable, and seafood consumption prospects are bright
China's seafood consumption continued to grow in 2018. The impact of swine fever on major supplies in 2019 will drive further growth in seafood consumption.
According to statistics, the per capita consumption of seafood in China's coastal areas is the highest, and seafood has been the traditional source of protein, as well as in regions with relatively high disposable income.
Traditionally, Chinese consumers prefer live seafood to processed food, and domestic processed seafood consumption is small compared to overall seafood consumption. However, consumption of processed seafood is expected to rise steadily due to improvements in China's processing, distribution and cold chain systems, and consumer interest in a more diverse and nutritious diet featuring seafood.
Consumption, policy, and supply chain join forces to boost China's bright future
Reduction of import tariffs and upgrading of household consumption will jointly promote the steady growth of aquatic product imports.
In 2018, China will reduce import tariffs on consumer goods in a wide range, expand opening up, meet the needs of the masses, and force product upgrading and industrial upgrading. Among them, starting from July 1, the average tariff rate for imported aquaculture and fishing aquatic products has been reduced from 15.2% to 6.9%. In addition, with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, reform and opening up have been intensified, and people's lives have continued to improve.
The increase in the disposable income of the people and the formation of consumption habits have continuously strengthened the social foundation to support consumption upgrades. The people's demand for high-quality aquatic products and their purchasing power are increasing, and China's aquatic product imports have increased steadily.
Various free trade agreements and economic and trade cooperation agreements have been advanced in an orderly manner, and the construction of the “Belt and Road” has brought new opportunities to the foreign trade of aquatic products.
In recent years, China's various free trade agreements have progressed steadily, including the formal signing of the Free Trade Agreement with Chile and Singapore to upgrade the Protocol, and the formal entry into force of the Georgia Free Trade Agreement. In terms of preferential trade arrangements, the China-Eurasian Economic Union Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement was officially signed, which further reduced the non-tariff trade barriers in the Eurasian region and improved the level of trade facilitation. Bring benefits.
The total import and export volume of aquatic products between China and the Eurasian Economic Union increased by 6.68% and 35.65% year-on-year, reaching 1.273 million tons and 2.781 billion US dollars. According to statistics, in 2018, China's total imports and exports of aquatic products with the countries along the “Belt and Road” were 3.114 million tons, with total imports and exports of US $ 9.021 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.59% and 26.27%, which is higher than the overall growth rate of China's aquatic products trade in the same year. .
Strengthening the fight against smuggling of aquatic products, the number of Zhengguan products soared.
In 2018, the General Administration of Customs launched a nationwide special campaign to combat smuggling "National Sword 2018", cracking down on smuggling of frozen products and continuously detecting major cases. For example, on April 2, Guangzhou Customs notified a salmon smuggling case worth more than 600 million yuan; on November 29, the General Administration of Customs notified the "607" special operation to combat frozen aquatic product smuggling, eliminating 16 smuggling gangs involved in the case, and verifying 30,700 tons of frozen aquatic products were smuggled, with an initial estimated value of 1.45 billion yuan. On January 28, 2019, a large group of frozen seafood smuggling involving 2.68 billion yuan was successfully destroyed.
Under the situation of cracking down on high pressure, rampant smuggling was curbed, the amount of aquatic products was increasing, and the market environment was more fair and just.
The Chinese economy is undergoing a process of development based on quality, development on speed, and development through openness. More and more high-quality seafood originating countries have entered this expanding consumer market. China will transform from a world factory to a major consumer of goods and services, providing more benefits and opportunities to a weakly growing world. (Author: China Agriculture grant Shun King rounds)